000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122024
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

ITCZ...
AXIS OF ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 9N95W 10N108W 9N117W 9N127W
5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N85W 6N79W
...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 129W-132W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO SOUTHWEST 
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N117W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO 
THE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MOSTLY 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR FROM 13N-29N 
EAST OF 122W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TO 
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IS 
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WEST 10 KT IS ALONG 127W/128W FROM 5N-12N. 
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W...AND EXTENDS 
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N120W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 
17N WEST OF 120W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN 
ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL NE TRADES TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
MID/UPPER RIDGING WITH MEAN AXIS THROUGH 32N118W 22N118W 13N118W 
COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW 
PRESENT NORTH OF 13N...EXCEPT WEST OF LINE 20N140W TO 32N135W 
WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED AHEAD OF A CUT-OF ELONGATED UPPER 
LEVEL VORTEX WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 28N143W. SOUTHERLY FLOW 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO DRAW UP AMPLE 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL 
MOISTURE BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
EASTWARD ACROSS 140W. PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 
12N.
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT IS ANALYZED NEAR 
8N97W.  SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW 
IS NOTED FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 97W-100W. 

$$
ORRES