000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121612 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI MAY 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ITCZ... AXIS OF ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 9N95W 10N108W 9N117W 9N127W 5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N85W 6N79W ...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 129W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 103W-108W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N117W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR FROM 13N-29N EAST OF 122W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TO ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WEST 10 KT IS ALONG 127W/128W FROM 5N-12N. RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W...AND EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N120W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 120W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL NE TRADES TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. MID/UPPER RIDGING WITH MEAN AXIS THROUGH 32N118W 22N118W 13N118W COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PRESENT NORTH OF 13N...EXCEPT WEST OF LINE 20N140W TO 32N135W WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED AHEAD OF A CUT-OF ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 28N143W. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO DRAW UP AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EASTWARD ACROSS 140W. PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 12N. E OF 110W... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AN ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. THE RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER PANAMA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ OUT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER WEST OF 110W TOWARDS NORTHERN MEXICO. A JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM 14N110W NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS MEXICO AT 18N104W. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 60-90 KT ALONG THE JET CORE. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT NEAR 3N105W. CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ EAST OF 104W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIDGE. ALSO...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT IS ANALYZED NEAR 9N97W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW IS NOTED FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 96W-100W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND FOR THE MOST PART ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW NEAR 9N97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD DURING THESE SAME NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE IS ALONG 108W FROM 6N-13N ALSO MOVING WEST ABOUT 10-15 KT. IT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W-108W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AND DRY STABLE CONDITIONS COVER THE AREA SOUTH OF ABOUT 5N. $$ AGUIRRE