000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

ITCZ...
AXIS OF ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 9N86W 6N98W 9.5N112W 8N123W
5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 9N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
84W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN 
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 115W-127W.

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
8N92W 8N90W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 10N95W 12N94W AND ALSO N 
OF 11N BETWEEN 88W-90W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO SOUTHWEST 
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N117W. CONFLUENT FLOW
INTO THE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 
MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR FROM
13N-28N EAST OF 121W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W...AND EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD
TO 22N120W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 
120W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR 
TYPICAL NE TRADES TO DECREASE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE 
AREA DURING THIS TIME.

MID/UPPER RIDGING WITH MEAN AXIS THROUGH 32N124W 19N124W 12N124W 
COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW 
PRESENT NORTH OF 12N...EXCEPT WEST OF LINE 20N140W TO 32N137W
WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL 
VORTEX WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 28N142W. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND THE VORTEX IS DRAWING UP AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING 
CHANNELED EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EASTWARD ACROSS 
140W. PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 12N.

E OF 110W...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NOTED OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AN ASSOCIATED 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS 
MEXICO. THE RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER PANAMA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING EXTENSIVE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ OUT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER WEST OF 110W TOWARDS NORTHERN 
MEXICO. A JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM 16N110W NORTHEASTWARD
TO ACROSS MEXICO AT 23N106W. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 
60-90 KT ALONG THE JET CORE. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT NEAR 2N104W. CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY 
ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ EAST OF 95W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE 
FROM THE RIDGE. ALSO...A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING W ABOUT
10 KT IS NEAR 10N91.5W.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT 
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND FOR THE 
MOST PART ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW NEAR 10N91.5W WILL CONTINUE 
TO TRACK WESTWARD DURING THESE SAME NEXT FEW DAYS. SO CONVECTION 
SHOULD BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AND DRY STABLE CONDITIONS COVER THE 
AREA SOUTH OF ABOUT 6N.

$$
AGUIRRE