000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

ITCZ...
AXIS...ALONG 5N77W 9N89W 6N98W 10N113W 6N130W 4N140W. 
CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 
12N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W.

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY 
MID LEVEL SW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS 
LIFTING NWD ALONG 20N AND 133W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS 
MOVING OVER LOWER BAJA AND SW COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A SECOND 
UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER LOWER MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK 
LOW 1007 MB WAS NEAR 9N89W MOVING SLOWLY WWD. THERE IS ONLY 
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH IT AND NO ORGANIZATION. A WEAK TROUGH 
WAS ALONG 116W MOVING W ON THE S SIDE OF THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE. 

FOR DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WITH THE 
UPPER RIDGE HOLDING FIRM BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. A LARGE UPPER 
TROUGH LIES JUST W OF THE REGION BETWEEN 140W AND 150W. ON THE  
SURFACE THE WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR 9N93W. THE MID 
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NE TRADES TO 20 KT W OF 110W BETWEEN 
10N AND 20N. 
 
ON DAY 2 THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AS THE UPPER 
TROUGH TO THE WEST TRIES TO LIFT NE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. 
THE WEAK LOW CHANGES LITTLE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE ITCZ TO NEAR 
9N95W. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS AND TRADES DECREASE SOME IN 
SPEED WITH AERIAL COVERAGE MAINLY W OF 120W BETWEEN 10N AND 20N. 
SOME GUSTY NLY WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 125W AND 
134W N OF 25N WITH NLY SWELL OF 8 FT.