000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

ITCZ AXIS...6N77W  0N105W  5N135W  5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION 360 NM FROM AXIS E OF 93W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 103W TO 123W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 127W.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE AMPLITUDE NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ANTICYCLONE CENTER 
NEAR 8N125W TO WELL N OF 32N130W.  LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE MOVING OVER ENTIRE AREA W OF RIDGE AXIS ENHANCED BY 
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ITCZ.  
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 128W. 

DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS
S TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 18N113W 
THEN CONTINUE TO SECOND VORTEX AT 1N104W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS W 
TROUGH AXIS N OF 15N WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NE ALONG 
AND WITHIN 5 DEG SE OF AXIS TO CENTRAL MEXICO TO WRN GULF OF 
MEXICO.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG ITCZ MAINTAINS ONGOING 
SCATTERED CONVECTION SE OF TROUGH AXIS. 

LARGE ALMOST STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA HAS BEEN ADVECTING PLENTY OF WARM 
CONVECTIVE MOISTURE DEBRIS FROM LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AROUND 
ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INTO E PAC.  WITH INTENSIFYING EQUATORIAL 
TROUGH BECOMING MORE ACTIVE...ALL THAT WATER IS FINDING ITS WAY 
INTO DEEP CONVECTION AS AN APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEMS 
TO BE DEVELOPING OFF W COAST OF COSTA RICA.  GFS SOLUTION 
MAINTAINS 1008 MB LOW PRES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD BUT WITH 
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IT MIGHT DEEPEN 
MORE.    

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 14N114W 
WITH TYPICAL BRISK TRADE WINDS N OF 10N W OF 120W.  ALSO COASTAL 
ZONES OFF CALIFORNIA CONTINUE WITH STRONG N TO NW WINDS 
SPREADING LARGE N SWELL INTO E PAC FORECAST WATERS. SHIP REPORTS 
CONTINUE 3-5 FT ABOVE NWW3 SOLUTION.  

GOOD CYCLONIC TURNING OFF W COAST OF COSTA RICA INDICATES 
EQUATORIAL TROUGH BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE POINT OF 
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER 
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEEPENING WHILE GFS SOLUTION 
MAINTAINS 1008 MB IN AREA THEN DRIFT W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

WALLY BARNES