000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

ITCZ...
AXIS OF ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 8N100W 10N110W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 
120W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ FROM 126W TO 131W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 
79W AND N OF 10N BETWEEN 87W-92W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO 
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 108W-112W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 
135W.  

DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW COVERS MOST OF BASIN W A LINE FROM 
10N120W TO 30N130W AS A NARROW RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION.  THE 
RIDGE HAS PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE & HIGH CLOUDS WITH A FEW 
SHOWERS NEAR 20N135W.  TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
12N118W.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES N OF 20N BETWEEN 
110W-130W.  WHERE THE TROUGH MEETS THE ITCZ TSTMS ARE PLENTIFUL 
DUE TO UPPER DIVERGENCE.   TYPICAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM 
30N132W TO 18W110W WITH TRADES INCREASING W OF 130W.  TRADES 
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME NLY SWELL 
LIKELY W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

E OF 110W...
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N78W TO SE 
MEXICO WITH PLENTY OF SLY WINDS OVER THE REGION.  CONVECTION IS 
FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE PROVIDED 
BY RIDGE.  WLY WINDS ARE AT THE SURFACE S OF MEXICO.. INDICATIVE 
OF AN ACTIVE CONVECTION PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION 
(MJO).  MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND WESTWARD 
INTO THE EPAC WATERS WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION LIKELY FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS THE TYPE OF UPPER/LOWER-LEVEL 
CONFIGURATION THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL GENESIS IN A BROAD 
SENSE.. BUT IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO EARLY IN THE SEASONAL CYCLE 
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES AS ANY WAVES ARE ILL-DEFINED AT BEST.  

$$
BLAKE