000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ......7N77W  7N86W  10N110W  6N125W  4N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 180 NM WIDE W OF 105W 
AND E OF 90W.

DISCUSSION...
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW COVER MOST OF BASIN W OF 120W AS NARROW 
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER SECTOR.  JET STREAM WITH 90 KT ENTER SCENE  
NEAR 24N140W HEADING NE AND TRAILING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
SEEN ON SAT W OF 130W.  ANOTHER WEAKER BRANCH OF SPLIT JET 
APPROACHES 10N140W WITH POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING ITCZ DEEP 
CONVECTION ALREADY IN PROGRESS W OF 130W.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS E 
OF 130W AS DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH INCREASES CONFLUENCE N OF 15N 
FROM 130W TO 110W.  TROUGH DIGS FROM ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TO 
9N120W.   

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA RACES NE WITH
80 KT JET CORE TURNING AROUND ITS BASE OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LACK OF MOISTURE CURTAILS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER AREA.  

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMPLETES PICTURE DOWNSTREAM AS 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HONDURAS BRINGS WARM 
TROPICAL MOISTURE DEBRIS FROM DEEP CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA UNTO 
E PAC BASIN AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS FAR W AS 90W.
NEVERTHELESS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT S OF ITCZ APPEARS TO 
CURTAIL ANY DEVELOPMENT S OF 7N E OF 105W.    

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB WELL N OF AREA HAS 
HEALTHY RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 13N102W TIGHTENING GRADIENT AGAINST 
SURFACE LOW PRES...REFLECTION OF UPPER SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE 
...INCREASING N WINDS ALONG BOTH CALIFORNIAS COASTS ALONG WITH 
BRISK NE TRADES FROM 9N TO 18N W OF 120W.  N SWELLS SPREADING 
ACROSS NW CORNER OF BASIN W OF 125W CONTINUE BEING UNDER CALLED 
BY NWW3 SINCE YESTERDAY.  WITH TIGHT GRADIENT AND LONG FETCH 
SHOWN ON SURFACE ANALYSIS OBSERVATIONS OF 13 TO 15 FT HAVE BEEN 
REPORTED.  

$$
WALLY BARNES