000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.

...ITCZ...8N804W 8N105W 5N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG...120 NM WIDE 81W TO 93W...130 NM 
WIDE 102W TO 130W...150 NM WIDE 131W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 
19N123W 25N131W TO 32N136W. IT APPEARS THAT MID/UPPER 
LEVEL EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORMING NEAR 26N115W. THIS LOW 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CONVERGENCE INTO THE 
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE FROM 20N-27N 
BETWEEN 120W-129W...AND ALSO WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N115W TO 
23N120W. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 32N128.5W. A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH 
AND EXTENDS FROM 17N117W SOUTHWEST TO 8N120W. MODERATE SOUTHWEST 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF TROUGHS ...AND IS ADVECTING UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS NOTED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 
22N149W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HOURS BECOMING SOMEWHAT SHEARED NEAR 28N143W. STRONG 
SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THE FLOW 
PATTERN IS ANTICYCLONIC SOUTH OF 21N WEST OF 135W AND BECOMES 
MORE CYCLONIC NORTH OF 21N WEST OF 137W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED 
ALONG AND WELL NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 6N-13N WEST OF 135W. AT 
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 
32N136.5W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N129W TO 22N122W. HIGH PRESSURE 
COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 121W. POSSIBLE SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 114W FROM 5N-14N ...AND IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION TO ITS EAST ALONG THE ITCZ.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO 
ABOUT 20N110W. STRONG CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGH WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE SEEN OVER HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTION 
REMAINS RATHER SUPPRESSED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND MUCH OF 
MEXICO DUE TO DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF CNTRL AMERICA CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY 
EASTERLY WITH ITCZ MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD NORTH OF 7N EAST 
OF 107W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER 
THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND ALONG THE COAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA AS WELL FROM 10N-12N EAST OF 103W.

$$