000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081607 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON MAY 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 9N95W 8N110W 7N124W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-115.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 134W-140W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W-85W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-91W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 19N122W...THEN BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS THAT CONTINUES NORTHWEST THROUGH 25N131W TO 32N136W. IT APPEARS THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORMING NEAR 26N115W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 120W-129W...AND ALSO WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N115W TO 23N120W. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 32N128.5W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 17N117W SOUTHWEST TO 8N120W. MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF TROUGHS ...AND IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS NOTED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 22N149W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS BECOMING SOMEWHAT SHEARED NEAR 28N143W. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THE FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICYCLONIC SOUTH OF 21N WEST OF 135W AND BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC NORTH OF 21N WEST OF 137W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG AND WELL NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 6N-13N WEST OF 135W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N136.5W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N129W TO 22N122W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 121W. POSSIBLE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 114W FROM 5N-14N ...AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION TO ITS EAST ALONG THE ITCZ. E OF 110W... LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO ABOUT 20N110W. STRONG CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SEEN OVER HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER SUPPRESSED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND MUCH OF MEXICO DUE TO DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF CNTRL AMERICA CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY WITH ITCZ MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD NORTH OF 7N EAST OF 107W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND ALONG THE COAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS WELL FROM 10N-12N EAST OF 103W. $$ AGUIRRE