000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  10N86W  7N124W  7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM N OF AXIS FROM 104W TO 
115W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NW MEXICO TO 
23N123W TO SHEAR AXIS NEAR 26N140W WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS.  TROUGH WEAKENS GRIP OF LARGE MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS E PAC DISRUPTING FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
ADVECTED EASTWARD BY 80 KT JET CORE ENTERING W BORDER OF BASIN.
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES DEEP CONVECTION OF ITCZ JUST S OF 
JET STREAM ALONG 10N W OF 123W.

EASTERN SECTION OF ITCZ BEING FED ABUNDANT MOISTURE BY SRN 
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE STRETCHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND E PAC E 
OF 110W.  LACK OF UPLIFTING MECHANISM CURTAILS MORE DEEP 
CONVECTION AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS NEAR 10N.  MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE NEAR RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINS AREA N OF 10N FAIRLY DRY.  

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1030 MB NEAR 35N145W NW OF E PAC WITH 
LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING TO 10N110W KEEPS BRISK NE TRADES N OF 
10N W OF 120W.  RIDGE ALSO BRINGING STRONG N WINDS ALONG COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA DOWN FURTHER S INTO E PAC E OF 125W.  LARGE N 
SWELLS...UP TO 14 FT...ALSO SPREADING S.  NWW3 MAINTAINS HIGH 
SWELL N OF AREA WITH ONLY 10 FT S OF 31N.  THIS SOLUTION MIGHT 
BE TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE LENGTH OF N FETCH.       

$$
WALLY BARNES