000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 7N90W 8N108W 4N124W 7N140W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 6N86W 6N100W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 107W-116W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-10N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT SW OF 
THE UNITED STATES SW ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 
24N125W...THEN CONNECTS TO A SHEAR AXIS THAT CONTINUES W OF 
25N140W. CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WEAK/MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE N OF 22N BETWEEN 110W-132W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE W/SW FLOW S OF THE LARGER TROUGH ALONG 114W 
BUT IS ONLY SPREADING A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO W/CNTRL MEXICO. 
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS ALREADY CENTERED JUST SE OF THE BIG 
ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND A SECOND CUT-OFF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 
NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...SETTING UP A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK 
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE 
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH 
THE UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS NRN MEXICO ON TUE. SPLIT FLOW 
PATTERN LIES S OF 24N W OF 125W WITH THE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND 
THE HAWAIIAN UPPER LOW AND ALSO SEWD ACROSS THE EQUATOR.

E OF 110W...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA 
BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO 
20N110W...AND EWD TO THE N COAST OF S AMERICA. STRONG 
CONVERGENCE IS MOSTLY E/SE OF THE HIGH WITH SUBSIDENCE REACHING 
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 9N E OF 94W...ACROSS HONDURAS...EL 
SALVADOR...AND NICARAGUA. THIS STRONG RIDGE CAUSED HIGH 
TEMPERATURES OF 97F IN MANAGUA NICARAGUA...104F IN FLORES 
GUATEMALA...AND 96F IN LIBERIA COSTA RICA (AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES 
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS DATE). UPPER LEVEL FLOW S OF 
CNTRL AMERICA IS MAINLY ELY WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS 
BETWEEN 4N-10N. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS 
OF NW COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AS WELL AS FROM WRN HONDURAS TO SW 
GUATEMALA.

$$
BERG