000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 7N90W 7N108W 4N127W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 6N83W 
5N91W...AND LINE 7N98W 5N106W. ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 7N-11N 
BETWEEN 107W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 
112W-122W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 7N-10N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT SW OF 
THE UNITED STATES SW ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 
24N125W...THEN CONNECTS TO A SHEAR AXIS THAT CONTINUES W OF 
23N140W. CONVERGENCE INTO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WEAK/MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE N OF 23N BETWEEN 112W-130W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE W/SW FLOW S OF THE LARGER TROUGH ALONG 117W 
BUT IS ONLY SPREADING A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS ALREADY 
CENTERED JUST SE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND A SECOND 
CUT-OFF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THIS 
EVENING...SETTING UP A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE AREA THROUGH 
MID-WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH 
OVER NW MEXICO THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH THE UPPER LOW EJECTING 
ACROSS NRN MEXICO ON TUE. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN LIES S OF 20N W OF 
125W WITH THE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE HAWAIIAN UPPER LOW AND 
SEWD ACROSS THE EQUATOR. THIS CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS PRODUCING 
AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF 10N BETWEEN 110W-122W WITH 
ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION.

E OF 110W...
LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA 
BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO 
20N110W...AND EWD TO THE N COAST OF S AMERICA. STRONG 
CONVERGENCE IS MOSTLY E/SE OF THE HIGH WITH SUBSIDENCE REACHING 
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 8N E OF 94W...ACROSS HONDURAS...EL 
SALVADOR...AND NICARAGUA. THIS STRONG RIDGE HAS CAUSED 
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TODAY TO 97 F IN MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND TO 
102 F IN NRN GUATEMALA...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL 
HIGHS FOR THIS DATE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW S OF CNTRL AMERICA IS 
MAINLY ELY WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS BETWEEN 4N-10N. AS 
SUCH...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER 
PARTS OF NW COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.

$$
BERG