000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1530 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 7N100W 8N120W 8N130W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
122W AND 132W.  WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 
100W AND BETWEEN 105W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW UNITED STATES 
ACROSS N BAJA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 25N125W 
WHERE IT DEGENERATES INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO 
BEYOND 26N140W.  A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LIES POLEWARD OF 
THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS CREATING A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AND 
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 500 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN 100 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS.  FURTHER E...A WELL DEFINED UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 
GUATEMALA WITH ATTENDANT RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW OVER E MEXICO 
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS SUCH...BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ALL OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND MEXICO. 
MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENT AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MOVING 
AROUND THE E PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO/NW CARIBBEAN AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  AS A RESULT...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED WITHIN 
THE ITCZ.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS DIFFLUENT TO 
THE EQUATOR SUPPORTING ITCZ CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E 
OF 115W. A FEW OF THESE TSTMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA WHICH LIE ON THE EXTREME S PORTION OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT.  OVER THE W PART OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA...BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE W OF 
120W IS BUILDING NWD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER 
BAJA 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
A CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON 
MONDAY.  WITH A CUTOFF LOW ALREADY PRESENT W OF THE AREA NEAR 
HAWAII...AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL FORM OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA MON AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

$$
RHOME