000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 12N92W 12N100W 7N107W 2N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 122W 
TO 134W AND 104W TO 112W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS E OF 93W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM S CALIFORNIA TO 26N127W 
AND EXITS 26N140W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH 
AXIS DISTINCTLY SEPARATE TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...ONE SOUTH OF 
AXIS W OF 120W AND THE OTHER COVERS ENTIRE AREA N AND W OF AXIS. 
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WITH CORE OF 90 KT ENTERS E PAC AT 
20N140W WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FOR ITCZ 
CONVECTION.  NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEPARATES THIS RIDGE FROM 
DOWNSTREAM LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITTING OVER GUATEMALA 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 120W TO WRN CARIBBEAN.  SRN PERIPHERY 
OF RIDGE IS ADVECTING AIR MASS FROM WARM AND MOIST SOUTH 
AMERICAN CONTINENT INTO ITCZ DOMAIN S OF 10N.  AROUND ITS NWRN 
PERIPHERY RIDGE BRINGS SOME WATER INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE...NEAR 
SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. 

VERY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN UNDER GUATEMALA RIDGE AND EXTEND 
THROUGH NW CARIBBEAN...BAHAMAS AND SW N ATLC.  

AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH ALONG 9N120W 13N117W NOW APPROACHING 
MOISTURE ADVECTED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE AND IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITCZ ACTIVITY.  

STRONG 1029 MB HIGH PRES NW OF EPAC WATERS HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
15N115W ENHANCING TRADES N OF 115W.  EWD MOVE OF RIDGE 
RESPONSIBLE FOR BRISK NW WINDS ALONG CALIFORNIA AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WINDS LASTING THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

AVAILABILITY OF PLENTY OF MOISTURE MAKING ITCZ MORE ACTIVE THAN 
PREVIOUS WEEK AS TWO SEPARATE SOURCES FROM E AND W CONVERGE INTO 
BRINGING THE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER FOR DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS 
BECOMING THAT TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN...SO SOON. 

$$
WALLY BARNES