000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 6N84W 7N100W 9N120W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 81W-89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING ACROSS THE W COAST OF 
THE US WITH THE TAIL END OF THE AXIS EXTENDING SW OF SRN 
CALIFORNIA TO 27N130W THEN AS A SHEAR AXIS TO 25N140W. A LARGE 
CUT-OFF LOW HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A 
SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...SETTING UP AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN 
WITH A RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 130W FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE W/SW FLOW S OF 
THE SHEAR AXIS ALONG 128W AT THE MOMENT BUT APPEARS TOO FAR N OF 
THE ITCZ TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICS. WIDESPREAD 
HIGH CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED IN THE FLOW HOWEVER...ROUGHLY 
S OF A LINE FROM 23N140W TO 23N127W TO THE N/CNTRL BAJA 
PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL LOCATED ALONG 9N118W 
13N114W BUT A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE 
HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. 

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED S OF THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO/NW CARIBBEAN IS FLOWING SWD AND SPREADING ACROSS SRN 
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
S OF THE HIGH IS ELY TO THE EQUATOR...BUT THE BELT OF DEEP 
MOISTURE EXTENDS S TO 4N. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IN THE 
REGION IS NEAR THE ITCZ E OF 90W...ON THE DIFFLUENT EDGE OF A 
RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 9N. A FEW OF 
THESE TSTMS HAVE BEEN PULSING ACROSS PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA 
RICA...AS WELL AS NEAR FROM EL SALVADOR NW ACROSS SRN GUATEMALA 
TO CHIAPAS MEXICO.

$$
BERG