000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 9N86W 6N101W 8N131W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-9N E OF 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 4.5N-8N BETWEEN 133W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...

...W OF 110W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING ACROSS THE W COAST OF 
THE US WITH THE TAIL END OF THE AXIS EXTENDING SW OF LOS ANGELES 
TO 27N130W THEN AS A SHEAR AXIS TO 24N140W. A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW 
HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A SECOND LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE NEXT 
48 HRS...SETTING UP AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE 
VICINITY OF 132W FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE W/SW FLOW S OF THE SHEAR AXIS 
ALONG 132W AT THE MOMENT BUT APPEARS TO FAR N OF THE ITCZ TO 
ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICS. WIDESPREAD HIGH 
CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED IN THE FLOW HOWEVER...ROUGHLY S OF 
A LINE FROM 23N140W TO THE CNTRL BAJA PENINSULA. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS STILL LOCATED ALONG 7N118W 13N114W BUT INCREASING SLY 
SHEAR AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT 
DOWN ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED S OF THE MEXICAN COAST...SHIFTING 
A LITTLE W FROM YESTERDAY TO NEAR 15N105W. THIS SHIFT HAS 
ALLOWED DRY SUBSIDENT AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/NW CARIBBEAN 
TO FLOW SWD ACROSS CNTRL AMERICA GETTING TO ABOUT 12N. UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW S OF THE HIGH IS ELY TO THE EQUATOR...BUT THE BELT OF 
DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS S TO 3N. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IN THE 
REGION IS NEAR THE ITCZ E OF 90W...ON THE DIFFLUENT EDGE OF A 
RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 8N. A FEW OF 
THESE TSTMS HAVE BEEN POPPING ACROSS PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA 
RICA...AS WELL AS NEAR SAN SALVADOR IN EL SALVADOR.

$$
BERG