000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061614
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 6N90W 9N100W 6N110W 9N115W
7N127W 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-86.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS EAST OF 81W...AND 
ALSO SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 134.5W-137W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
102W-106W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N122W
AND CONTINUES THROUGH 28N130W TO 27N140W. AT THE WESTERN END OF 
THE SHEAR AXIS...AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS FORMED OVER
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 

LOW LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE AREA 
FROM 22N135W SOUTHEAST THROUGH 15N129W TO 10N123W...THEN 
CONTINUES SOUTHWARD AS A SHEAR AXIS TO NEAR 3N123W. THE UPPER 
FLOW SPLITS WEST OF THE TROUGH WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
FLOW CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE EQUATOR NEAR 122W. 
THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS GENERALLY DIVIDING THE FLOW AROUND A 
BROAD RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE FLOW AROUND A RATHER LARGE UPPER 
HIGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST PACIFIC. 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 14N115W 10N116W 8N117W HAS MUCH LESS
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON THE TROUGH AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 114W-117W. ONLY ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH.

LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO NEAR 
15N104W WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF WEAK/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
EXTENDING NORTH OF 13N AND EAST OF 105W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY 
FLOW AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE EXISTS SOUTH OF THE HIGH TO 
THE EQUATOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
STABLE AIR SOUTH OF 5N. A RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-NORTHWEST FROM 
THE HIGH THROUGH 15N108.5W TO 22N120W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA EAST OF ABOUT 124W WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO.

WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS 
HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 
EAST PACIFIC. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE TROUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND COSTA RICA TO 
NEAR 10N90W. AREAS OF DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS 
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ EAST OF 
94W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY 
DURING THE MORNING.

$$
AGUIRRE