000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 6N90W 8N104W 6N110W 9N125W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
OF THE AXIS E OF 82.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-92W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE 
AREA ALONG 32N127W 29N134W TO 27N140W. AT THE WESTERN END OF 
THE SHEAR AXIS...AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS DEVELOPING WELL 
W OF THE AREA ABOUT 200 NM N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 

LOW LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE AREA 
FROM 22N136W 13N125W...THEN EXTENDS S AS A SHEAR AXIS TO NEAR 
4N123W. THE UPPER FLOW SPLITS W OF THE TROUGH WITH THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE FLOW CONTINUING NEWD TOWARDS THE BAJA COAST WITH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. THE 
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS GENERALLY DIVIDING THE FLOW AROUND A BROAD 
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE FLOW AROUND A RATHER LARGE UPPER HIGH 
THAT COVERS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST PACIFIC. EARLIER 
CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 
14N115W TO 6N119W...HAS WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 6-12 
HOURS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS 
REMAINS ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-130W.

LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO 
NEAR 16N100W WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF WEAK/MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE EXTENDING FROM 12N-20N E OF 106W...STRONGEST NEAR THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW AND DEEPER TROPICAL 
MOISTURE LIE S OF THE HIGH TO THE EQUATOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/LESS MOISTURE S OF 4N. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
AROUND THE HIGH COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 100W-125W.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW DOES BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS N MEXICO.

WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS HONDURAS. 
THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. 
HOWEVER...EAST OF THE TROUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS W 
ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 10N90W. AREAS OF 
DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF THE RIDGE IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 96W. LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF 
THE GULF OF PANAMA EARLY THIS MORNING.

$$
BROWN