000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N84W 8N100W 11N113W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 
108W-120W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 120W-131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE AREA IS 
SHEARING OUT AS A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS W OF THE AREA NEAR THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND DETACHES FROM A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OFF THE 
W COAST OF THE US. THE UPPER FLOW S OF HAWAII IS ZONAL BUT THEN 
SPLITS NEAR 139W WITH THE FLOW S OF 10N TURNING SE TOWARDS THE 
EQUATOR...AND THE REMAINDER CURVING NE TOWARDS THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AND CNTRL MEXICO. THE DIFFLUENCE RESULTING FROM THE 
SPLITTING FLOW...AS WELL AS AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 14N...IS 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 107W-131W WITH THE CIRRUS 
DEBRIS HEADING TOWARDS THE W MEXICAN COAST. THE ITCZ IS ALSO 
BECOMING INCREASINGLY PERTURBED IN THIS REGION WITH A LOW/ 
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 8N117W 13N112W. THE CONVECTION 
AROUND THIS FEATURE REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT THERE IS MORE 
MID-LEVEL ROTATION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

E OF 110W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO NEAR 
15N102W WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF WEAK/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
EXTENDING FROM 13N-20N E OF 108W...STRONGEST OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE 
LIE S OF THE HIGH TO THE EQUATOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE/LESS MOISTURE S OF 4N. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM NRN VENEZUELA WWD TO COSTA RICA AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
DIFFLUENCE IS PROMOTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 92W...AND 
HAS ALSO SHIFTED SOME OF THE STRONGEST TSTMS FARTHER N ACROSS 
PANAMA. ASIDE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION S OVER OPEN WATERS... 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER PANAMA FROM 
7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE ALSO 
DEVELOPED SW OF EL SALVADOR WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N89W 
TO 11.5N92W.

$$
BERG