000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051627 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI MAY 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 8N85W 8N93W 9N105W 10N114W 7N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81.5W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-127.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ E OF 80W...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 129W-132W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-90W. ISOLATED STRONG IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 6.5N79W. ...DISCUSSION... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BUT IS SHEARING OUT WITH ITS AXIS FROM 32N133W TO 27.5N140W. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS NOTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 121W. THE FLOW IS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 23N. WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE SOUTH OF 23N THIS FLOW HAS INCREASED ...AND IS CHANNELING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N135W THROUGH 12N131W TO 7N125W. DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO AID ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS VICINITY. WEST OF THE TROUGH... STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS PROTRUDING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N103W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 8N118W TO NEAR 7N124W. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS HONDURAS TO 12N92W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM SOUTH AMERICA ROUGHLY ALONG 10N WEST TO 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 113W FROM ABOUT 4N TO 13N. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS OBSERVED FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 112W-116W...AND IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW RESULTING FROM THE TROUGH TO ITS WEST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1330 UTC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED A POSSIBLE LOW ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 8N113W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUING MOVING WESTWARD REACHING NEAR 118W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND 122W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 124W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG WIDESPREAD AS IN THE FIRST TROUGH...IS SEEN AS THE SCATTERED STRONG VARIETY WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 10N126W 12N123W. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W AND EXTENDS THROUGH 25N121W TO 21N111W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 114W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD FROM 15N TO 27N WEST OF 120W. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051627 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI MAY 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 8N85W 8N93W 9N105W 10N114W 7N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81.5W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-127.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ E OF 80W...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 129W-132W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-90W. ISOLATED STRONG IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 6.5N79W. ...DISCUSSION... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BUT IS SHEARING OUT WITH ITS AXIS FROM 32N133W TO 27.5N140W. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS NOTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 121W. THE FLOW IS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 23N. WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE SOUTH OF 23N THIS FLOW HAS INCREASED ...AND IS CHANNELING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. LOW LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N135W THROUGH 12N131W TO 7N125W. DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO AID ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS VICINITY. WEST OF THE TROUGH... STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS PROTRUDING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N103W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 8N118W TO NEAR 7N124W. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS HONDURAS TO 12N92W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM SOUTH AMERICA ROUGHLY ALONG 10N WEST TO 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 113W FROM ABOUT 4N TO 13N. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS OBSERVED FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 112W-116W...AND IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW RESULTING FROM THE TROUGH TO ITS WEST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1330 UTC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED A POSSIBLE LOW ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 8N113W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUING MOVING WESTWARD REACHING NEAR 118W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND 122W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 124W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG WIDESPREAD AS IN THE FIRST TROUGH...IS SEEN AS THE SCATTERED STRONG VARIETY WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 10N126W 12N123W. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W AND EXTENDS THROUGH 25N121W TO 21N111W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 114W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD FROM 15N TO 27N WEST OF 120W. $$ AGUIRRE