000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 7N92W 9N108W 7N120W 8N130W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE 
GULF OF PANAMA WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N77.5W TO 7N79.5W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 118W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE ALONG 6N112W 5N117W TO 9N118W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W-95W...125W-129W AND 135W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WITH 
AXIS ALONG 35N134W TO NEAR 30N140W. NW OF THIS TROUGH A LARGE 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA WILL BE SWINGING 
ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID 
LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS ACROSS THE N BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 
BETWEEN 20N-30N THE FLOW IS SW TO WLY AND BECOMES ACCELERATED 
NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA BETWEEN TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. AND AN 
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

LOW LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS NW TO SE ACROSS THE TROPICAL E 
PACIFIC FROM 20N138W 14N133W TO 7N125W. DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.

LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N103W. RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS WSW FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 10N120W. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THIS TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS 
S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. E OF THIS AREA...A RIDGE EXTENDS 
ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA W ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR 10N90W.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 111W FROM ABOUT 
3N TO 13N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT FOR 
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE 
TROUGH TO THE WEST IS PRODUCING A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED 
TSTMS FROM 110W TO 120W BETWEEN 3N AND 14N. THE SURFACE TROUGH 
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUING MOVING WESTWARD REACHING NEAR 
116W/117W FRIDAY NIGHT. 

MARINE...COMPARING THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL WITH ALTIMETER DATA 
FROM AROUND 00Z...THE MODEL IS OVER-FORECASTING SEA HEIGHTS BY 
ABOUT 2-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 140W. THE MAIN AREA OF 
OVER-FORECASTING IS IN THE SLY SWELLS THAT ARE CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN ABOUT 100W-130W.

$$
BROWN