000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 6N88W 9N108W 7N120W 8N130W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 90W...AND BETWEEN 88W-93W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-120W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 108W-116W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WITH THE 
FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL. THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS 
FROM 14N140W NE TO 27N110W WITH THE FLOW BEING SQUEEZED AND 
ACCELERATED NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH 
DROPS S FROM CALIFORNIA...TOWARDS AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
15N109W. MAXIMUM 300 MB WINDS IN THE JET CORE ARE 75 KT OVER THE 
NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING ON THE W 
SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH AND IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE 
ITCZ E OF 135W. AN OMEGA BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE 
AREA BY MON OR TUE AS TWO MID/UPPER LOWS FORM NEAR THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AND W OF THE AREA NEAR 28N145W...WITH A RIDGE IN THE 
MIDDLE ALONG 130W.

E OF 110W...
MOSTLY VARIABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC E OF 
110W WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WLYS LIMITED TO N OF 15N. A WEAK 
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 10N95W 
WITH ONLY WEAKLY SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH AND MOISTURE 
STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG 
THE ITCZ E OF 93W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN INVERTED UPPER 
TROUGH IS ALONG 95W/96W S OF 5N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE LYING UP 
TO 750 NM TO THE E. FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM NRN VENEZUELA TO JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA... 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION AND SPREADING THE CIRRUS NWD ACROSS 
PANAMA/COSTA RICA.

$$
BERG