000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042142
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 7N85W 5N98W 9N106W 5N120W 
8N132W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 
9N-13N BETWEEN 100W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 104W-133W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 
120W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WITH 
PARTIAL SPLIT FLOW STILL IN COMMAND BETWEEN THE WRN US COAST AND 
150W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 12N140W NE TO 27N110W 
WITH THE FLOW BEING SQUEEZED AND ACCELERATED NEAR THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPS S FROM CALIFORNIA... 
TOWARDS AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 15N110W. MAXIMUM 300 MB 
WINDS IN THE JET CORE ARE 75 KT WHERE THE JET COMES INTO SRN 
CALIFORNIA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING ON THE W SIDE OF THE 
UPPER HIGH AND IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ E OF 
133W. AN OMEGA BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY MON 
OR TUE AS TWO MID/UPPER LOWS STALL OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 
NEAR 28N145W...WITH A RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE ALONG 130W.

E OF 110W...
MOSTLY VARIABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC E OF 
110W WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WLYS LIMITED TO N OF 13N. A WEAK 
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 10N94W 
WITH ONLY WEAKLY SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH AND MOISTURE 
STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG 
THE ITCZ E OF 93W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN INVERTED UPPER 
TROUGH IS ALONG 95W S OF 5N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE LYING UP TO 
750 NM TO THE E. FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
NRN VENEZUELA TO JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA... 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION AND SPREADING THE CIRRUS NWD ACROSS 
PANAMA/COSTA RICA.

$$
BERG