000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041641 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU MAY 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 10N93W 7N102W 9N107W 6N125W 5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W-81W...103.5W-106W... 123W-128W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-91W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 12.5N102.5W 14N100W...AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 102.5W-105W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 115W... SPLIT FLOW REGIME BEST DESCRIBES THIS AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL IS NOTED FROM 12N-32N WEST OF 129W WITH AN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 135W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT EAST OF THE TROUGH WITH ANTICYCLONIC COVERING THIS AREA NORTH OF 12N EAST OF 129W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING FEW SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS NORTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 125W. HE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE S CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 20-25 KT...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 115W-125W. SOUTH OF 28N...THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ITS ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 13N115W 17N120W 23.5N124W. THE FLOW IS GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THIS AREA AS IS THE CASE BETWEEN THAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W AND EXTENDS TO ABOUT 23N115W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 18N. MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE MOVING WESTWARD FROM 15N-28N. STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 121W-125W FROM 9N-12N DUE TO A POSSIBLE SURFACE TROUGH. WILL AWAIT SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER TODAY BEFORE MARKING TROUGH FEATURE ON SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 1800 UTC. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE MOSTLY AS A LOW AND TRACK IT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE REGION. E OF 115W... WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NEAR 19N103W SW TO ABOUT 14N106W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 10N104W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 12N111W TO 13N115W. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N102W 16N95W WHILE WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE TO 87W. EAST OF 87W MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGING IS BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC NORTH OF 9N. DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE UPPER HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRES ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROUGH MOVING WEST 10-15 KT IS ANALYZED ALONG 105W/106W SOUTH OF 11N. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA AND IS DESCRIBED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH UNDER ITCZ. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041641 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU MAY 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 10N93W 7N102W 9N107W 6N125W 5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W-81W...103.5W-106W... 123W-128W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-91W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 12.5N102.5W 14N100W...AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 102.5W-105W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 115W... SPLIT FLOW REGIME BEST DESCRIBES THIS AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL IS NOTED FROM 12N-32N WEST OF 129W WITH AN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 135W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT EAST OF THE TROUGH WITH ANTICYCLONIC COVERING THIS AREA NORTH OF 12N EAST OF 129W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING FEW SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS NORTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 125W. HE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE S CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 20-25 KT...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 115W-125W. SOUTH OF 28N...THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ITS ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 13N115W 17N120W 23.5N124W. THE FLOW IS GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THIS AREA AS IS THE CASE BETWEEN THAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W AND EXTENDS TO ABOUT 23N115W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 18N. MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE MOVING WESTWARD FROM 15N-28N. STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 121W-125W FROM 9N-12N DUE TO A POSSIBLE SURFACE TROUGH. WILL AWAIT SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER TODAY BEFORE MARKING TROUGH FEATURE ON SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 1800 UTC. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE MOSTLY AS A LOW AND TRACK IT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE REGION. E OF 115W... WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NEAR 19N103W SW TO ABOUT 14N106W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 10N104W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 12N111W TO 13N115W. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N102W 16N95W WHILE WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE TO 87W. EAST OF 87W MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGING IS BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC NORTH OF 9N. DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE UPPER HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRES ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROUGH MOVING WEST 10-15 KT IS ANALYZED ALONG 105W/106W SOUTH OF 11N. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA AND IS DESCRIBED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH UNDER ITCZ. $$ AGUIRRE