000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N79W 6N90W 9N105W 7N115W 9N124W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 102W-108W AND 122W-126W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 88W TO 100W.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS 
OF 3N78.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 
ALONG 12N BETWEEN 94W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 13N112W TO 11N117W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH LOCATED BETWEEN 10N-26N ALONG 138W AND AN UPPER RIDGE N 
OF THAT TOWARDS BRITISH COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SPREADING 
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM 19N-26N W OF 130W.  THE 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS
IT MOVES EWD. 

WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE 
S CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 
30N E OF ABOUT 128W.  FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE TROPICAL E 
PACIFIC...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N117W CREATING A BELT 
OF MODERATE WLYS N OF 20N E OF 130W INTO NRN MEXICO. AREA OF 
HIGH CLOUDINESS LIES NW OF THE UPPER HIGH FROM 7N-22N BETWEEN 
114W-130W. LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REGION
N OF 20N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

E OF 110W...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO 
NEAR ACAPULCO SW TO 15N108W. WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING WESTWARD 
FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS COSTA RICA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC 
ALONG 10N TO ABOUT 106W. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER 
HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD WITH HIGH PRES 
ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 120W. AT THE 
SURFACE WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 105W BETWEEN 4N-12N. THE 
TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.
GFS TRACKS THIS FEATURE WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. 


$$
BROWN