000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 9N99W 6N110W 9N126W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
90W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 101W-113W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 98W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH LOCATED S OF 20N ALONG 143W AND AN UPPER RIDGE N OF THAT 
TOWARDS BRITISH COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SPREADING A FEW 
HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM 19N-27N W OF 132W BUT THE FEATURE 
IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS IT MOVES E. 
DOWNSTREAM...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST AND AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED FARTHER S NEAR 
10N117W CREATING A BELT OF MODERATE WLYS (70 KT AT 300 MB) N OF 
18N E OF 130W INTO NRN MEXICO. BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND WIDESPREAD 
HIGH CLOUDINESS LIE NW OF THE UPPER HIGH FROM 7N-22N BETWEEN 
117W-132W. IN ADDITION...A MARINE STRATOCUMULUS DECK LIES N OF 
20N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 140W.

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
ACAPULCO SW TO 6N116W WITH DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING E TO ABOUT 95W. 
A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE ITCZ BENEATH 
THIS DIFFLUENCE ZONE...BUT THE BULK OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE 
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AXES. 
INCIDENTALLY...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRES FROM THIS 
CONVECTIVE MASS WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HRS...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE 
ONLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH FOR NOW. FARTHER E...AN UPPER 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA WWD TO 10N90W AND 
IS SPREADING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA... 
NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.

$$
BERG