000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 4N81W 9N100W 7N110W 7N124W 
4N140W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
79W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-13N 
BETWEEN 98W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 
110W-115W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 121W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH LOCATED S OF 20N ALONG 145W AND AN UPPER RIDGE N OF THAT 
TOWARDS BRITISH COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO 
SPREAD A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM 19N-27N W OF 134W 
BUT THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS 
AS IT MOVES E. DOWNSTREAM...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED 
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
10N120W CREATING A BELT OF MODERATE WLYS FROM 20N-30N E OF 130W 
INTO NRN MEXICO. BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDINESS 
LIES NW OF THE UPPER HIGH FROM 7N-20N BETWEEN 120W-135W. IN 
ADDITION...A MARINE STRATOCUMULUS DECK LIES N OF 20N W OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA AND APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT WITH DAYTIME 
MIXING.

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
18N103W SW TO 5N115W WITH DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING E TO ABOUT 95W. A 
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE ITCZ BENEATH 
THIS DIFFLUENCE ZONE...BUT THE BULK OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE 
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AXES. 
INCIDENTALLY...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRES FROM THIS 
CONVECTIVE MASS WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HRS...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE 
ONLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH FOR NOW. FARTHER E...AN UPPER 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA WWD TO 9N90W AND 
IS SPREADING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND 
NICARAGUA.

$$
BERG