000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031637 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED MAY 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 8N90W 6N105W 5N112W 7N122W 5N132W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 102.5W-107.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W-102.5W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107.5W-112W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 125W... LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION ABOUT 600 NM NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW MAY POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART AS A TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...THEN MOVE EAST TO WELL BEYOND 125W IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N134W TO 24N125W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 19N. E OF 125W... BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF 24N IS FLATTENING WITH TIME AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N122W WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 22N125W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 111W-125W. JET STREAM AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM 15N125W EAST-NORTHEAST TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 27N114W. THE JET IS PULLING AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS GENERALLY NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 118W-125W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MEXICO JUST WEST OF ACAPULCO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO VICINITY OF THE ITCZ NEAR 10N110W. DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N EAST TO 103W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 1200 UTC ALONG 104W SOUTH OF 10N. A 300 NM WIDE SWATH OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS WITHIN 480 NM EAST AND WEST OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N-18N. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVOLVING FROM THE TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER IN DISCUSSION MAY FORM NEAR 29N122W IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. REMAINDER OF AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING EAST-WEST ROUGHLY ALONG 8N/9N FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 7N65W. A SMALL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE NEAR 6N87W MOVING NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION TO ITS EAST SEEN WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N84W 9N84W. $$ AGUIRRE