000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N83W 7N90W 9N95W 6N105W 7N115W 
6N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 9N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 101W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 100W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVELS COMPRISED OF A CUTOFF LOW W OF THE AREA NEAR 
25N153W...BROAD RIDGE BETWEEN 125W-140W...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
MOVING INTO THE W COAST OF THE U.S./MEXICO.  AN UPPER LEVEL 
JET...ESTIMATED BETWEEN 70-110 KT...EXTENDS FROM 15N140W NEWD 
THROUGH 27N125W THEN ESE TO THE S BAJA PENINSULA.  THE JET IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE W OF 
120W PRODUCING EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
DECREASES E OF 120W OWING TO THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE 
ALOFT OCCURRING NEAR THE W MEXICAN TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE... 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO THE W COAST OF MEXICO 
NEAR 20N105W.  

S OF 15N...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM S AMERICA OVER 
THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG 10N.  THE RIDGE IS PARTIALLY DISRUPTED 
BETWEEN 105W-120W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE S EXTENT OF A TROUGH 
OVER W MEXICO.  DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE BASE OF THIS 
TROUGH IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 110W-130W.  
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL 
ITCZ DISTURBANCE ALONG 100W.  

$$
RHOME