000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N78W 7N90W 6N100W 9N112W 8N123W 
6N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 
LINE FROM 8N122W TO 9N124W AND WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N127W 
AND 6.5N129W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 106W-109W AND 113W-118W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 95W TO 101W. 

ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SW WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 
ALONG 16N95W 14N98W TO 12N102.5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 3N79W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 115W...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM NNE OF 
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THE UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY 
BUT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING SE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT 
IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS. 

CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 27N W OF ABOUT 
115W. THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BUILDING EASTWARD. JET 
STREAM WITH WINDS TO ABOUT 110 KT IS ALONG THE LINE 20N140W 
25N130W TO 26N125W. N OF 27N...THE AREA IS COVERED BY MAINLY 
ZONAL WESTERN FLOW. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE APPROACHING THE N BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS 
TEMPORARILY INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA 
THE BAJA PENINSULA.

E OF 115W...
BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS OFFSHORE NEAR 
MANZANILLO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC TO NEAR 12N114W. SOME 
MID-LEVEL DRYING IS SEEN WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM W OF THE 
TROUGH. SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. A NARROW RIDGE 
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 8N96W. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW 
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS PULLING MOISTURE 
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC AND EASTERN MEXICO.  
THIS IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS 
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.

A WEAK AND BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN SE OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS NEAR 6N84W. THIS LOW MAY BE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. 

$$
BROWN