000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 8N82W 6N90W 8N110W 6N125W 
6N140W. ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE GULF OF PANAMA WITHIN 60 NM OF 
LINE 7N77W 7N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 
89W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W-121W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM 
BETWEEN 121W-126W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 90 NM W OF 
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EASE EWD OVER THE AREA WITH MEAN 
AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO SW ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 20N120W. 
UPPER CONFLUENCE INTO THE TROUGH IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 110W-128W. THIS HAS ALSO PUSHED 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET EWD FROM 18N116W TO W TEXAS...WITH ALL UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS CNTRL/NE MEXICO BETWEEN 
MAZATLAN AND MANZANILLO. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS ALIGNED W OF 
THE TROUGH FROM 20N133W TO NRN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH CLOUDS 
CROSSING E OF 140W THEN FIZZLING NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. NEARLY 
ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXISTS S OF 13N...PRODUCING A FAIRLY LINEAR 
CONVECTIVE PATTERN NEAR THE ITCZ. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WIND 
REGIME W OF 120W EXTENDS N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 20N BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AS HIGH PRES NEAR 
34N136W SHIFTS N TO THE W OF THE OREGON COAST.

E OF 105W...
AREA IS DOMINATED BY UPPER HIGH CENTERED SW OF NICARAGUA NEAR 
10N90W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS 
LITTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE DRIEST AIR IS LOCATED 
S OF 8N BETWEEN 90W-105W. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED 
ALONG THE ITCZ S OF PANAMA AS WELL AS IN A PATCH FROM 4N-7N 
BETWEEN 89W-93W. ISOLATED LAND BREEZE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO 
POPPING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...PRIMARILY 
FROM THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER TO EL SALVADOR.

$$
BERG