000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 6N105W 7N120W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 110W 
TO 114W, SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 122W TO 127W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 130W 
TO 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N132W SW TO 13N140W. SOME HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA W OF 
135W. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO/NEW 
MEXICO BORDER MOVING SLOWLY E. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE 
ROTATING AROUND THE W AND SW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ARE MOVING 
SWD INTO MEXICO AND EXTREME N PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW TO 15N125W. CONFLUENCE 
IS CAUSING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 
120W-133W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A 95-105 SUBTROPICAL 
JET FROM 17N120W TO 22N115W THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA AND N CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS 
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS AND ARE MOVING 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST N OF THE GULF 
OF TEHAUNTEPEC. MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS S OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE ALONG 100W/101W S OF 12N IS MOVING W. DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM 14N TO THE MEXICAN 
COAST BETWEEN 95W-100W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W...WITH 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF 15N W 
OF 116W,

$$
DGS