000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 7N88W 9N100W 7N115W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W-116W...AND BETWEEN 123W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO 
BORDER NEAR 32N113W MOVING SLOWLY E. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
ROTATING AROUND THE SW/W PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING 
SWD TO THE EXTREME N PART OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL 
SHIFT E AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE N/CNTRL 
US WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. LEFTOVER UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW 
OF THE LOW TO 13N130W...AND CONFLUENCE IS STILL CAUSING 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 120W-134W. THIS 
SUBSIDENCE HAS STRENGTHENED THE TRADE INVERSION...LOWERING ITS 
BASE TO ABOUT 925 MB IN THE REGION. FARTHER UPSTREAM...AN UPPER 
RIDGE AXIS FROM JUST E OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO OREGON IS 
SLIDING EWD WITH ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS NOW SPILLING INTO THE 
AREA N OF 20N W OF 135W.

THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOW EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO 20N119W THEN 
TOWARDS THE SRN BAJA PENINSULA AND N/CNTRL MEXICO. SCATTERED 
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTEND UP TO 600 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS AND 
ARE MOVING INLAND OVER CNTRL MEXICO. THIS FLOW IS CIRCULATING 
AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 12N107W AND RIDGE EXTENDING 
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 
98W/99W IS MOVING W TOWARDS THE HIGH AFTER HAVING BEEN SHEARED 
OFF FROM A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. 
UPPER FLOW EXTENDS FROM SE MEXICO TOWARDS THIS TROUGH...AND IS 
PROPELLING A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC W/SW TOWARDS PUERTO ANGEL. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS LIE JUST OFFSHORE THE REST OF CNTRL AMERICA DUE TO 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE.

$$
BERG