000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230926 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN APR 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 6N90W 5N100W 6N110W 5N120W 3N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 120W-123W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 79W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 6N114W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 86W-92W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR LOS ANGELES. ITS ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 26N117W 22N114W TO 16N111W. JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 70-100 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N133W THROUGH 22N120W 21N115W THEN NORTHEAST- WARD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD REACHING MEXICO EARLY MON MORNING AS GLOBAL MODELS YET FORECAST ANOTHER TROUGH TO ENTER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TRACK EASTWARD LIKE THE CURRENT ONE IS DOING WITH ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS BEING CHANNELED INTO THE AREA AND RIDING EASTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO WITHIN ABOUT 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE JET STREAM. MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND RATHER DRY STABLE CONDITIONS AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 21N EAST OF 130W. BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT N OF 13N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE ITCZ IS AIDING STRONG CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 119W-123W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH 32N133W 25N133W TO 23N115W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA PRIMARILY NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 113W MAINTAIN TYPICAL NE-E TRADE WINDS GENERALLY WEST OF 125W. E OF 110W... WEAK MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ NEAR 5N98W...AND IS TRANSITIONING TO A TROUGH. REMAINDER OF THIS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WHICH ALSO INCLUDES MEXICO. THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION THAT YESTERDAY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO IS NOW DIMINISHING. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST MEXICO AND HONDURAS WHILE STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE OVER MUCH OF THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA. EXPECT SIMILAR TYPE CONVECTION FOR THESE LAND AREAS TO FORM TODAY AND NEXT 24-38 HOURS. PULSE OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SHOULD HELP START GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE GAP WINDS OF 20 KT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SLACKENS SOME ALLOWING FOR THE GAP WINDS TO CEASE. $$ AGUIRRE