000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC SAT APR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 5N90W 6N110W 6N110W 4N130W 
4N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ E OF 
84W... FROM 123W TO 129W... AND W OF 133W.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 4.5N-6.5N BETWEEN 105W-112W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF 11.5N106.5W AND 5N98W.  

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH SWINGING INTO CALIFORNIA WITH TROUGH 
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 30N123W SOUTHWARD TO 14N123W.  BROKEN 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH STREAMING INTO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO E OF 115W.  OTHERWISE MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS THE RULE N OF 20N.  TYPICAL BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY 
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LAYER COVERS THE EPAC N OF 13N W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE ITCZ.. FUELING 
PLENTY OF TSTM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY W OF 120W.  TYPICAL TRADES 
ARE PRESENT W OF 125W.  

E OF 110W...
UPPER RIDGE IS GROWING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 105W BUT ISN'T 
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN LATER TODAY.  OTHERWISE MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE 
AREA WITH A FEW TSTMS IN THE ITCZ POKING INTO THE DRY 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.  HIGH PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING IN THE 
WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO WHICH SHOULD 
ALLOW THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS TO SURGE TO AT LEAST 20 KT 
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS 
COVER THE FAR EPAC WITH SSTS WARMING CONSIDERABLY S OF MEXICO. 

$$
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