000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192110
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 6N100W 7N120W 4N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS FROM 82W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 100 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 109W-115W

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION 
OF THE AREA WITH MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 125W. THE RIDGE IS 
MOVING EWD AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA 
CURRENTLY JUST W OF 140W. SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS INDICATE A 
60-90 KT JET STREAM FROM 20N140W TO 22N135W WHERE THE WINDS 
DECREASE TO 40 TO 60 KT. FURTHER E...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
PUSHING EWD OVER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE BAJA 
PENINSULA...AND W MEXICO.  ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT FLOW IS 
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT E OF 
120W. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS N OF THE 
ITCZ AND E OF 120W THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO. A FEW ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER E MEXICO WHERE THE UPPER FLOW 
BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFLUENT.  FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NW ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA THEN N OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N130W SE TO 17N105W. THE RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.  THERE 
WILL BE LIMITED DYNAMICS/LIFT WITH THE FRONT SO ONLY WIDELY 
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT AND NW SWELLS TO 12 FT. 

$$
RHOME