000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 8N90W 6N110W 5N120W 3N140W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 109W-115W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-85W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF 
THE AREA NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 120W WITH AN ILL-DEFINED AXIS 
THAT EXETNDS SOUTH TO NEAR 9N113W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL COVER 
ALL OF THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA INN THE WAKE OF THE 
TROUGH. DRY AIR AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
NOTED NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 128W. JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS 
THE REGION THROUGH 21N140W AND CONTINUES ALONG 20N130W AND
DIVES SOUTHEAST TO 15N122W. SATELLITE UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES 
MAXIMUM WINDS OF UP TO 90 KT NEAR THE CORE OF THIS JET STREAM 
WEST OF 133W. MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE 
EAST OF 128W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED 
NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR 34N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N129W 24N119W TO 18N116W. HIGH 
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 115W. TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING NW 
20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND 20-25 KT NE TRADES NORTH 
OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 22N AND WEST OF 122W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...AND 
THE TRADES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER LATE 
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN 
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE FRONT REACHES A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 
26N140W BY LATE THU NIGHT.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH. 
A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IDENTIFIED ON
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE NEAR 6N104W. IT SHOULD LOSE 
ITS IDENTITY WITHIN A FEW HOURS AS SURROUNDED DRY AIR LIMITS ITS 
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

MODELS BRING A RATHER PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH INTO
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND 
QUICKLY MOVE EAST REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...MOVING EAST OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY STRONG WESTERLY 
WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS TROUGH NORTH OF 
ABOUT 15N.

INTERMITTENT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG
AND NEAR THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH. 

OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...MID/UPPER 
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE ANTICYCLONIC WITH RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER NORTHEAST COLOMBIA
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND REACHING TO CENTRAL
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED EMANATING FROM COLOMBIA WEST-NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 10N AND EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COLOMBIA COAST AS
WELL AS OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA...BUT INDICATING
A WEAKENING TREND AS SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
$$
AGUIRRE