000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161513
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN APR 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N77W 6N86W 4N100W 7N115W 7N125W 8N130W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 117W-123W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG ARE FROM 5N-8N W OF 134W AND WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS 
OF 9N134W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS 
FROM 84W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 
24N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE 
LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE 
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AT THE 
SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO 
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT NWLY SWELLS OF 8-12 FT ARE EXPECTED 
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE 
AREA. THE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURES WILL RESULT IN 20-25 KT 
NWLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST BY LATE MON.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 20N W TO SWLY FLOW PREVAILS. 
A WEAK JET WITH WINDS OF 60-75 KT IS ADVECTING AN AREA OF 
MOISTURE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 19N122W... 
EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 25N112W
TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND SE TEXAS. NW OF THE JET MAINLY DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REGION.

BROAD WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN 
SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF ABOUT 115W. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN 
ALONG THE ITCZ IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE AXIS W OF ABOUT 115W.

FARTHER EAST...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST SE OF ACAPULCO...NEAR 
16N99W. TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR 
4N104W. EAST OF THE CIRCULATION...SLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE AREA E 
OF 108W IS COVERED BY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS KEEPING 
ITCZ CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.
   
$$

BROWN