000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ AXIS 4N77W  7N93W  4N114W  4N128W  2N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 111W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 15N W OF 120W COUPLES WITH SHORT 
RIDGE S OF 15N W OF 120W TO CHANNEL WEAK JET IN BETWEEN WITH 75 
KT AND ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 15N INTO ITCZ.  
REMAINS VERY DRY N OF 15N ALONG TROUGH AXIS DUE TO MODERATE TO 
STRONG UPPER SUBSIDENCE.  

DOWNSTREAM NARROW RIDGE HAS TILTED CREST FROM 14N114W TO 32N90W 
AND 95 KT JET BRINGING NARROW STREAM OF MOISTURE ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO.  
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 14N99W HAS TROUGH MEANDER NE INTO 
SERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MAINTAINING REGION VERY DRY.  
FINALLY...BROAD WELL ANCHORED RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC VORTEX 
WELL E OF THE CONTINENT EXTENDS W ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN 
KEEPING AREA FAIRLY DRY...TYPICAL FOR THIS SEASON. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB WELL E OF FORECAST 
WATERS HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N115W.  TRADES REMAIN BRISK AND 
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD CHANGING LITTLE ITS 
AREA.  WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS RIDGE 
DRIFTS E FORCED BY WEAK COLD FRONT NOW N OF FORECAST REGION.  
COLD FRONT BRINGS SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IN ITS VICINITY BUT 
LARGE SWELL BUILDUP N OF 20N.    
$$

WALLY BARNES