000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...ITCZ AXIS 8N83W 6N100W 8N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 
117W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
THE LONGWAVE REGIME HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS 
WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN 
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.  THE PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF A SHARP 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 
HONDURAS INTO THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 4N110W...A RIDGE FROM 12N130W 
NEWD OVER MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND A BROAD 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W UNITED STATES SWD OVER EXTREME NW 
MEXICO TO 20N140W.  OWING TO AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE AND 
DYNAMICS/LIFT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA 
TO 15N140W AND S OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W.  SOME HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED OVER N MEXICO ALONG AND SE OF A 
70-120 KT SUBTROPICAL JET FROM 20N130W NEWD INTO THE SW UNITED 
STATES ALONG 31N114W. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE 
AREA YESTERDAY HAS DISSIPATED ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD 
BACK OVER THE AREA FROM 29N140W TO 7N105W.  ACCORDINGLY...ELY 
TRADES HAVE EXPANDED EWD NOW COVERING THE AREA W OF 120W.  OVER 
THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC...THE ITCZ IS MOST ACTIVE BETWEEN 110W 
AND 120W.   

$$
RHOME