000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N86W 6N96W 6N110W 6N120W 6N130W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS WEST OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN 
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LARGE EMBEDDED CYCLONIC 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...BECOMING ELONGATED WITH TIME...IS EVIDENT 
NEAR 32N126W WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS RUNNING SOUTH FROM THE 
CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST THROUGH 25N129W TO 20N133W TO 17N140W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY SINKING AIR COVERS THE AREA 
FROM 15N-23N WEST OF 127W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA 
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 125W. WEAKENING SURFACE COLD 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 22N126W
TO 14N136W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 
HOURS AND LIKELY BE REVEALED AS A REMNANT CLOUD BOUNDARY IN 
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST 
UNITED STATES TO 24N118W. HOWEVER...STRONG SURGE OF LARGE SWELLS 
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 15N110W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND THE REGION AT 3N140W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS
NE TO ACROSS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND CONTINUES NE TO THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG...AND JUST TO THE N OF THE ITCZ...MAINLY W OF 
133W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION SPREADS N ALONG 
THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE FROM 10N130W TO 20N120W THEN NARROWS AND CONTINUES NE 
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO 
AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS LINE ALSO DEFINES A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF UP TO 110 KT NEAR
THE JET CORE.

A SHARP POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THEN CONTINUES 
SW ACROSS GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO
NEAR 13N95W.

WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 7N E OF 93W. THE 
RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR SPORADIC ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP 
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ EAST OF ABOUT 97W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS 
BLOWOFF CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.

GAP WINDS...WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER ALL GAPS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED.

$$
AGUIRRE