000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 6N90W 4N100W 4N110W 6N120W 
7N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS WEST OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE NE PAC IS DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH 2 EMBEDDED 
CYCLONES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE SOUTHERNMOST DEEP 
LAYERED CYCLONE IS NEAR 35N129W WITH A MEAN TROUGH AXIS S ALONG 
140W TO JUST N OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
ASSOCIATED DRY SINKING AIR COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 350 NM EITHER
SIDE OF LINE 32N112W 24N127W TO 23N140W. THE DEEP CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TO NEAR 29N126W IN ABOUT 48
HOURS THEN TURN NE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN 48-60 HOURS. THE 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWING SE TO ALONG 130W IN
ABOUT 18-24 HOURS THEN OVERRUN ANY REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH 
THAT CURRENTLY IS ABOUT 360 NM E OF THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY. THE 
NW SWELLS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY LARGER 
N SWELLS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SECOND FRONT.       

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 12N110W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND THE REGION AT 5N140W. A RIDGE ALSO 
EXTENDS NE TO ACROSS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND CONTINUES NE 
TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG...AND JUST TO THE N OF THE 
ITCZ...MAINLY W OF 130W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS 
CONVECTION SPREADS N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...
ROUGHLY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 10N125W TO 
20N115W THEN NARROWS AND CONTINUES NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO INTO THE 
NW GULF OF MEXICO.

A SHARP POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUES SW 
ACROSS GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO A 
SMALL CYCLONE MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT NEAR 2N108W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND ASSOCIATED DRY UPPER AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH
OF 21N AND EAST OF 112W TO ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 6N E OF 95W. THE
RIDGE IS AIDING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 86W-89W. 
DEBRIS UPPER LEVEL BLOWOFF CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF 
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...AND INTO THE THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN SEA. 
SIMILAR CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ACROSS NW COLOMBIA.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SHORT TERM MINIMAL GALE EVENT
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND EXPIRE AROUND OR 
WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THU EVENING. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE 
NEXT 36 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE