000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110928
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...ITCZ AXIS 9N84W 5N95W 5N110W 2N130W 1N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 115W AND 
120W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 15N...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER MEXICO THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES 
AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA GENERALLY W OF 
110W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS COMPRISED OF A 
DEEP-LAYERED VORTEX N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N135W MOVING SE WITH A 
WEAKER...SHORTWAVE...FEATURE LIFTING NEWD OVER THE SW UNITED 
STATES. THE ATTENDANT UPPER JET...ESTIMATED TO 130 KT...EXTENDS 
ALONG 18N140W 23N120W INTO NW MEXICO ALONG 30N110W THEN 
CONTINUING INTO NEW MEXICO.  MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDINESS 
ACCOMPANIES THE JET BUT THERE IS OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO 
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION WITH THE TROUGH.  W OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS...STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS 
GENERATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT NW OF A LINE FROM THE 
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 13N140W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
SHARPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED 
DEEP-LAYERED VORTEX MOVES SE REACHING A POSITION NEAR 32N140W BY 
THU MORNING. THIS EVOLUTION WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY 
ENTERING THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM 33N130W TO 30N140W...DEEP 
INTO THE DISCUSSION REGION ULTIMATELY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA TO 15N140W BY THU. CURRENTLY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 200 NM SE 
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS....EXPECT 
INCREASING SHOWER AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY 
INTO WED.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NLY 
WINDS TO 25 KT AND LARGE SWELLS TO 21 FT.  ELSEWHERE...LOW PRES 
WELL N OF THE AREA WILL FURTHER WEAKENING THE PACIFIC 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS IT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD. 

TROPICAL PACIFIC S OF 15N...
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IS SUPPRESSING 
ITCZ ACTIVITY BETWEEN 98W AND 115W. ELY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED TO THE FAR W PART OF AREA DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. 

$$
RHOME