000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N93W 7N110W 6N120W 7N128W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 116W-122W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 87W-93W AND WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 108W-116W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH IS LIFTING NE AND WILL EXIT THE 
AREA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT BROAD 
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EXTREME W PORTION OF THE AREA 
INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 
30N131W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS 
OF 110-125 KT EXTENDS NEWD JUST SE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 28N135W 
31N127W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.

MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
NEAR 11N128W. BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS NNE ALONG 20N125W TO N 
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. SCATTERED/BROKEN CIRCUS CLOUDS ARE 
MOVING NE AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CLOUDINESS COVERS THE AREA
FROM 10N-25N W OF 120W.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
MANZANILLO TO NEAR 12N110W. EAST OF THE TROUGH MAINLY SWLY 
UPPER FLOW IS SEEN TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ...MUCH 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND 
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IS FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 95W.

$$
BROWN