000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 5N77W  7N86W  4N102W  6N120W  4N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF ENTIRE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX N OF AREA AT 38N121W HAS MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 32N121W 20N130W.  STRONG 130 KT JET 
STREAM ROTATES AROUND VORTEX BASE N OF 28N ENHANCING DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS 
ALONG 102W.  WHILE IT IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG AND NW OF TROUGH AXIS 
...A LARGE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTERS WRN BORDER OF 
FORECAST WATERS WITH 70 KT JET CORE AND RUNS EXTENSIVELY ALONG 
SE EDGE OF TROUGH AXIS INTO COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW 
CONUS CORNER.  PREVIOUS SURFACE TROUGH WHICH ENTERED SW CONUS 
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE 
ALL INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SERIOUS PRECIPITATION EVENT...AS 
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.  

ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE ACCENTUATING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
E OF AXIS FROM 10N TO 27N THROUGH REMAINDER OF MEXICO...MOST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA...SRN HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN.  
MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM SOUTH AMERICA BY LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER 
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FINDING ITS WAY INTO TROPICAL E PAC AND 
FEEDS ITCZ ACTIVITY ALONG ITS ENTIRE AXIS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER WELL W OF AREA HAS HEALTHY 
RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N110W REINFORCING TRADES N OF 5N W OF 120W  
AND ADDING LARGE NW SWELLS REACHING OVER 15 FT.  NWW3 DID FINE 
JOB HANDLING FORECAST AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE AS WINDS AND SEAS 
ABATE.  GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS WHICH SUDDENLY CAME ALIVE 
YESTERDAY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 24 HRS THEN DIMINISH AS 1017 MB 
HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO DISSIPATES.  GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
PANAMA WINDS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES