000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 4N82W 6N100W 5N111W 5N124W 6N134W 5N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF 
AXIS FROM 85W TO 97W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 38N128W HAS LARGE AMPLITUDE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIG S INTO FORECAST WATERS FROM 32N127W TO 
19N140W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS NW OF TROUGH FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY 
DOWNSTREAM BY 80-90 KT CORE JET JUST SE OF TROUGH AXIS.  PLENTY 
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED NE BY JET AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
BLOCKS E PATH WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 105W.  CYCLONIC VORTEX HAS 
STRONG 130 KT JET ROUNDING ITS BASE AND WILL ENHANCE STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE VERY CLOSE TO NRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND NW MEXICO.  WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING COAST INGREDIENTS ARE SETTING IN 
PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION EVENT OVER AREA.  DOWNSTREAM FROM 
RIDGE...OPPOSITE CONDITIONS OCCUR AS VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 10N 
E OF RIDGE AXIS EXTEND ACROSS REMAINDER OF MEXICO INTO SRN HALF 
OF GULF OF MEXICO AND FURTHERMORE INTO ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  

IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS STREAMED INTO 
FORECAST REGION S OF 12N EXTENDING THROUGHOUT E PAC.  ITCZ 
BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AS DEEP CONVECTION FLOURISHES ALONGSIDE ITS 
AXIS.  MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION DEBRIS ADVECTED E INTO MEXICO 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA EVAPORATES IN VERY DRY AIR FROM GULF OF 
MEXICO SHORTWAVE. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1017 MB NEAR 23N122W WEAKENS AS 
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N119W 23N127W 20N134W SQUEEZES 
IT AGAINST COASTAL TERRAIN.  LARGE NW SWELLS FOLLOW TROUGH AND 
SHOULD REACH COASTAL WATERS WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS.  BRISK TRADE 
WINDS CONTINUE FROM 5N TO 13N W OF 110W.  SIMILARLY...GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NEXT 48 HRS THEN START TO ABATE AS 
HIGH PRES OVER CARIBBEAN WEAKENS FORCED E BY COLD FRONT COMING 
OFF EASTERN SEABOARD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES