000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 5N77W  6N92W  4N112W 
5N130W  5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS FROM 88W TO 99W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 
107W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERS NW CORNER OF FORECAST WATERS 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W.  VERY DRY AIR ALONG TROUGH NW 
OF AXIS.  VERY STRONG JETSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC VORTEX 
WELL N OF AREA DIGS S APPROACHING NW CORNER CARRIES PLENTY OF 
ENERGY SHOULD ENHANCE TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST 
AREA.  IF TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...MOISTURE COULD MOVE 
OVER SW CONUS/NW MEXICO WITH MORE PRECIPITATION IN STORE FOR 
REGION AS ANTICYCLONE CREST ALONG 108W WOULD PREVENT A MORE 
SOUTHERLY PATH.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 14N125W TO S OF EQUATOR NEAR 120W 
COMBINES WITH DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PRODUCE 
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 
AXIS OF ITCZ W OF 107W.  VERY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF GULF 
OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO UPPER SUBSIDENCE.  

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT FROM 32N125W TO 26N131W STEERS NE AS 
WELL ANCHORED HIGH PRES 1018 MB SITS AT 25N120W AND REFUSED TO 
GIVE WAY.  STRONG WINDS W OF FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH LARGE SWELLS 
INTO FORECAST WATERS SPREADING SE DURING NEXT 48 HRS AS FRONT 
GOES OVER LAND.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS EXPECTED TO ABATE AS WRN ATLC COLD FRONT 
FORCES CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE TO MOVE E AND WRN CARIBBEAN SUBSIDE 
LATER IN FORECAST PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES