000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W  4N86W  5N106W  3N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 91W TO 94W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX WELL N OF AREA NEAR 44N129W HAS 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIG S TO 25N131W. JET CORE 95 KT ENTERS 
AREA FROM 25N140W AND ROUNDS TROUGH BASE THEN HEADS NE TO 
32N121W ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH 6 DEG SWATH IN 
EQUATORWARD SIDE.  AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN POLEWARD SIDE 
OF JET.  VERY DRY AIRMASS LIKELY DUE TO UPPER CONFLUENCE S OF 
15N 97W-140W.  

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 95W EXTEND DRY AREA S OF 
20N EASTWARD TO CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST INHIBITING DEEP 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ EXCEPT E OF 94W WHERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG 
ITCZ IS QUICKLY DECREASING.  RIDGE IS EXTENSION OF STATIONARY 
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER S AMERICA WHICH EXTENDS DRY 
AIRMASS INTO CARIBBEAN BASIN.  

AT THE SURFACE...WELL ANCHORED HIGH PRES 1019 MB AT 27N124W 
CURTAILING SE PROGRESSION OF WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH NOW FROM 
32N128W TO 24N140W.  REINFORCING SURGE BEHIND FRONTAL TROUGH TO 
SQUEEZE GRADIENT WITH RIDGE INCREASING WINDS IN ADDITION TO 
LARGE NW SWELLS APPROACHING WITH SURGE.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO BRISK WINDS RESULT FROM BUILDING ATLC HIGH PRES 
RIDGE LIKELY TO CONTINUE NEXT 48 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES