000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 5N110W 3N125W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 60-75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N83W TO 4N88W...AND 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 6.5N78W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 133W/134W COVERS THE
AREA W OF 127W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 43N139W IS IMPINGING UPON 
THE RIDGE N OF 32N. RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE S OF 20N W OF 120W WHICH IS INHIBITING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. FURTHER E...NEGATIVELY TILTED 
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 27N123W...TROUGH CONTINUES SSEWD TO 
17N1117W. RIDGE COVERS MEXICO N OF 18N WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 112W
AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER N-CENTRAL MEXICO. 
AT THE SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N131W DOMINATES THE 
AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W. LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR 28N145W IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AND 
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 

E OF 100W...
STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS WWD AND 
NWWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 95W...PANAMA AND THE 
CARIBBEAN S OF 20N. LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC N OF 5N E OF 110W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW S OF 5N IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 82W AND 88W AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA.  

GAP WINDS...
1218 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. NWP MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THESE WINDS 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE OVERALL 
INTENSITY OF THE WINDS...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 25 KT AT 
TIMES. 

$$
COBB