000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290353
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  2N78W  6N85W  3N104W  2N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA 
ALONG 140W BRINGING LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN 90 KT 
JET CORE WHILE DEEP LAYER TROUGH N OF 20N ALONG 120W KEEPS AIR 
MASS DRY FROM 127W TO 110W.  FLAT RIDGE ALONG 100W EXTEND DRY 
SLOT EASTWARD AND LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES DRYNESS TO EASTERNMOST 
PORTIONS OF EPAC AND THEN INTO CARIBBEAN BASIN.  LARGE MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER VENEZUELA COMPLETES UPPER LEVEL PICTURE 
BRINGING ONLY OTHER MOISTURE STREAM INTO GULF OF PANAMA.   
OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS COVERS REGION S OF 20N CURTAILING DEEP 
CONVECTION EVEN IN ITCZ. 

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM  32N120W  24N130W 
23N140W.  BRISK SW WIND WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONTAL SURFACE AND NW 
WIND W OF FRONT TO 134W SHOULD DIMINISH AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY 
SHIFTS N...FRONT STALL AND BECOMES DIFFUSE.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NW OF FRONT WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED.  
HIGH PRES 1018 MB AT 24N119W FORCED S AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING 
SHOULD DIMINISH TRADES BELOW 20 KT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NEXT 24 HRS 
THEN DIMINISH AS ATLC HIGH PRES RECEDES E UNDER PUSH FROM 1016 
MB LOW PRES JUST N OF PUERTO RICO. 

$$
WALLY BARNES